Part III – Lessons from Bangladesh for India by GB Reddy Sir

 

Part III – Lessons from Bangladesh for India

The most critical lesson for Indian political loggerheads as Self Styled intellectuals and Media professionals to learn from Bangladesh is to understand the “Nature and Character of Protests, Civil Unrest and Revolutions” and the policies and strategies to counter them. The case study of the recent “Bangladesh Civil Unrest culminating in the downfall of Sheik Hasina secular Awami League government” provides a number of lessons.

Undeniably, political leaders and parties in pursuit of power are the most sinister threat, who excite, incite and provoke unrest, protests and revolutions. They have mastered the art and science of inciting, organizing and provoking agitations politicizing even minor issues to seize opportunities available to build up their vote banks for the next round of elections. The current I.N.D.I Alliance politics is marked by sophisticated rhetoric that appears tilted towards a belief that if they cannot rule the country, it is better to balkanize India. And, certain foreign powers and their deep states would prefer India’s disintegration.

One observer has succinctly covered the “toolkit” followed in protests – planned escalation to provoke police forces to open fire at foot soldiers thereby creating martyrs for the movement to escalate. In the past, they have even triggered a secessionist movement across Punjab with international support. Furthermore, there is an unmistakable element of Hindu hatred in anti-CAA protests. Anti-CAA protests want to seal the fate of Hindus in the Islamist countries where Hindus face existential threat and are undergoing a slow-motion Holocaust. In the case of the pseudo-farmers’ protest there were always the anti-Hindu Khalistan forces waiting for an opportunity to unleash the same type of violence as in pre-1984 times — where again the primary target would be Hindus.

At the outset let me highlight that the “Bangladesh Scenario” cannot be equated to the “Indian Scenario”. The opposition political parties of I.N.D.I Alliance may attempt, under the patronage of international alliance partners, to incite and provoke mobs to attack Modi’s house and drive him into alien lands, but they must also be prepared to face a severe backlash against their leaders on the rebound.

Ipso facto, there are stark differences between India and Bangladesh. India does not have a political party with the ideology to establish Islamic Caliphate like the BNP and JeI in Bangladesh operating in alliance with the ISI of Pakistan and other international actors. Bangladesh is a small country with majority Muslims. By contrast, India is many times larger and has multi ethnic, racial and communal societies. Most importantly, India’s democracy is vibrant. On other hand, military coups/rules besides civil unrest have been quite common. More importantly, the students of JNTU and DU cannot be compared to the students of Decca or even Chittagong University for their ability to rally the entire student community to protest and replicate the storming of the Prime Minister house. Also, the Delhi society is multi communal whereas the Decca society is totally communal.

None can deny the significance of strategic management of countering “Protests, Civil Unrest and Revolutions”. The politico-bureaucratic focus must be on proactive, preemptive and preventive policy and strategy formulations based on fulfilling the aspirations of society adopting “Bottoms up Approach” instead of “Top down Imposition” viewed as an autocratic style of functioning. Policy and decision makers must be sensitive to the psyche of cross sections of society and how they will react and respond to various development initiatives.

Next, at the operative grass roots level, the strategies employed to counter agitations and protests follows the time tested and proven reactive flexible responses based on minimum use of force carefully avoiding loss of agitators lives. The Armed Forces have the manual of “Aid to Civil Authority” to govern their employment. Similarly, all other security and police forces must adopt a strategy of minimum force.

When viewed holistically, the probability of clash of civilizations cannot be wished away in South Asia in a long term context. It is one against four. That is, Hinduism vs. Islam; Hinduism vs. Christianity; Hinduism vs. Buddhism; and Hinduism vs. Sikhism. Internal radical Islamists aided and abetted by Pakistan and the ISI in collusion with the transnational terrorist organizations like the ISIS and the AQIS are hell bent upon establishing Islamic Caliphate of South Asia.

Add to them, separatist movements in the Christian dominated Mongoloid North east Hill Tracts to include Nagaland, parts of Manipur, Mizoram and Meghalaya. Not to be brushed aside lightly is the Khalistan separatist activity in Punjab. Also, in particular, inherited historic legacy of SC and ST caste divide which offers opportunities for political parties to exploit to align themselves with them in pursuit of power with other anti-Hindu forces.

Remember always that borders have been the source of endless disputes and confrontations through human history. For example, membership of a nation's post of UN post World War II increased from the original 51 Member States in 1945 to the current 193 Member States. The lesson is simple. No permanence of national borders. They are drawn and redrawn over the course of mankind’s history as a result of separatist movements triggered by ethnic identity eruptions.

What does it imply in today’s context? Quite obviously, securing borders first to prevent refugee influx – both Hindus and Awami League members – pouring across porous borders into Indian States is an imperative from a national security perspective. In retrospect, all cross border rail, road and sea traffic permitted under various treaties must be temporarily stopped until restoration of stability in Bangladesh. It implies temporary economic embargo.

Of utmost importance at the ground level is the safe evacuation of 9000 Indian students and 10,000 nationals and rehab. Their screening for identities and political leanings is also critical.

None must rule out the probability of infiltration of Islamist radicals into India’s interior states reinforcing and reinvigorating the radical Islamist organizations. The NIA in collaboration with State Police organizations must hound out radical Islamists members – both active and as sleeper cells – to prevent reinforcements to enhance their capabilities.

Meanwhile, the time for the “Wait and Watch” policy, which was the preferred option in the immediate context; that is over now. The MEA must carry out a de novo review of various options for various contingencies and adopt them to meet the complexities of emerging scenarios. To send the right message, the MEA must close the consulates and keep only skeleton staff at the Decca Embassy to avoid mobs rampaging them. Next, there is a need to comprehensively review various forums and agreements to include the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

On the economic front, trade embargo must be imposed until peace and normalcy is restored, particularly strategic materials like petroleum products. Also, the CEPA agreement that focuses on trade in goods, services, and investments must be kept on “Hold”. Unless the houses of those burnt particularly of Hindu’s are compensated and rehabilitated, there should be no cross border movement.

Yet another key lesson is media to include social media’s political toxicity. It is high time for the visual media to exercise self restraint whilst covering sensitive issues and protests. Furthermore, appropriate laws must be enacted governing social media responsibility and accountability.

Finally, policies and strategies to effectively deal with protests, communal riots and civil unrest must be formulated and defined to meet various contingencies. After all, India has vast experiences in countering over well over 100 major protests. Of special mention is the Separate Andhra Agitation of 1950s, Anti-Hindi Agitation of 1960s, anti-reservation protests in 2011, anti-corruption movement in 2011, Nirbhaya Movement in 2012, Telangana protests in 2012, JNU Sedition Row in 2016, Shaheen Bagh anti-CAA protests (15 December 2019 to 24 March 2020 and 2024), Farmers protests in 2020-21, 23 and 24, Indian wrestlers' protests in 2023, Kaveri water dispute protests in 2023, etc. Not a single day passes without protests staged at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi.

To sum up, there is an inescapable need to adopt proactive, preemptive and preventive policies and strategies at politico-bureaucratic levels to ward off protests and agitations spiraling into civil unrest and revolutions. “Bottoms up Approach” is, therefore, an imperative. And, time tested and proven “Minimum Force” at the grass roots levels must be the norm to counter protests spiraling into civil unrest and revolutions resulting in untold destruction and devastation thereby resulting in economic setback.