Power Shift or Political Divide – Not North vs. South, but West vs. Rest by G B Reddy Sir

 

Power Shift or Political Divide – Not North vs. South, but West vs. Rest

 

Sanjay Baru, in an article titled “The Geography of Power” in the Deccan Chronicle on 11 December 2023 stated, that the political divide is “Not North vs. South”, but West vs. Rest” since not a single North or  South or East Indian political leader of any consequence at the national level. The perception among the majority is that “Dynasty” and other "North" Indian leaders like Rajnath Singh or Shivraj Singh Chauhan or Vasundhara Raje Scindia etc are politically marginalized. The finance and external affairs ministers are South Indians. But, they do not exercise political power of their own. Even other ministers in charge of key portfolios also toe Modi’s line.

 

Sanjay Baru has identified the five centers of power -- political, business, bureaucratic, military and police, and media and entertainment. Out of all of them, he considers political power as the most critical one. As per his version, the North and West have come to dominate each of the five power domains over the years and the current power centre is the “WEST.”    However, there is more to “Power” than simplistic generalization under broad heads. Power is a multifaceted concept transcending various domains. Power is fluid, dynamic and highly complex. Not so easy to generalize or simplify.

 

In politics, power is the ability to influence or control others. It has a profound influence on our lives. Power dynamics shape societies, institutions, and relationships, often determining who holds authority and how decisions are made. Be that as it may, political power can change dramatically if the 2024 polls verdict goes against the WEST.

 

Cline, a strategic scholar of 1980s, formulated a conceptual framework for measuring power of nations to include: “Pp = (C + E + M) × (S + W), where C = critical mass (= area + population), E = economic capability, M = military capability, S = strategic purpose and W = will.” Many others that followed him have added many other interactive models for power measurement to include GSDP, Per Capita Income, and Per Capita Energy consumption and so on. While power cannot be easily quantified with a broad based formula, its effects can be felt profoundly in societal structures and interactions.

 

Ipso facto, in democracy, political power is a function of leadership capability, number of Members of Parliament, UNITY and “WILL of We the People” to elect their leaders that is borne out of human resources characteristics and capabilities of a diverse-cum-pluralist society. 

 

Great leaders are visionaries and ruthless. Such leaders can only build great nations; not good leaders. So, the power of “States or Nations” ultimately depends on great leaders who ruthlessly ensure political stability.

 

Remember always that “Democracy” implies mediocrity. At least in India, over 30-40% educated people do not exercise their franchise.

 

Be that as it may, in democracy the ultimate power rests with “We the Gullible Peoples” as history abundantly proves at least in the Indian context. And, “We the Gullible Peoples” exercise choice every 5-years or even earlier.

 

In reality, Modi wields political power due to the choice of “We the People” in 2019. In 2024, who will wield political power depends on “We the People”.

 

In retrospect Lord Acton’s maxim - all power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely – is true.

 

None can deny that the current business and financial power rests with groups from the two or three western states - Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan. But, Uttar Pradesh is racing ahead to reach the top.

 

Furthermore, Sanjay Baru attributes the decline in the bureaucracy in the number of South Indians – IAS, IFS, IPS, and other civil services – for the power shift. Add to them, insignificant numbers opting for the  Armed Forces and Central Security Forces. He attributed it to the large number of young people in the South and West opting for various professional courses, entering the private corporate sector and going overseas over the past two decades. 

 

In brief, “Brain Drain or Flight of Human Capital” is responsible for “Power Shifts”, particularly during the last three decades.   Even such a generalization is flawed by conception.

 

Let me provide the data of State Wise list of 177 IAS officers allotted cadres In November 2023: UP – 35; Rajasthan – 22; Delhi -18; Bihar -14; Telangana – 11; Maharashtra – 10; Madhya Pradesh -9; Tamil Nadu – 8;  Andhra Pradesh -7; J & K -6; Kerala – 5; Odisha -5; Haryana -5; Karnataka – 4; Uttarakhand -4; Punjab -3; Chandigarh -3; Manipur -2; Nagaland -2; Jharkhand – 2; West Bengal -1; and Arunachal Pradesh -2. Out of a total of 177, officers belonging to the East are insignificant at the entry level – 7 only.

 

Caste wise data includes: General -87; OBC (GM) – 5; OBC – 44; SC -29; and ST – 12. Total - 177. 

 

Also, data of number of selected IAS Officers during 2011-2015 includes: UP – 118; Rajasthan -   97; Tamil Nadu – 90; Bihar -                68; Andhra Pradesh – 61; Maharashtra  - 58; Kerala – 54; Haryana – 51; Delhi – 49; Karnataka -  37; Madhya Pradesh – 17; West Bengal – 7.

 

Similarly, the State Wise list of 200 IPS officers of 2022 includes: UP -29; Rajasthan -27; Maharashtra -19; Haryana – 17; MP -15; Bihar -15; Delhi -13; Karnataka -11; Punjab -9; Andhra Pradesh -7; Kerala -7; Jharkhand – 6; Telangana -6; Chattisgarh -5; Tamil Nadu -4; J & K -3; Uttarakhand -2; Gujarat -2; Odisha -1; Chandigarh -1; and Nagaland -1. Out of 200, there is only ONE at the entry level.

 

Caste wise data includes: General -104; OBC -50; SC -26; and ST -20.  Total – 200.

 

Most importantly, the data clearly reflects the present State and Caste wise intake that is skewed to favor the “General” group mostly “North and West”. Most important to note is the declining proportion of “General Cadre”.

 

Admittedly, conclusions on the “Shifts of Power” that have taken place during the past 75-years cannot be reached based on one year’s data that is recent. Comprehensive data of the past 75-years is vital to determine power shifts based on review of “Trend Lines”.

 

Yet another significant data available in the public domain gives the state wise number of candidates interviewed and selected.  The UPSC CSE exam is held annually to recruit for Group A and Group B posts in the Indian government for 22 services including IAS, IFS, IPS and many others. The data of number of candidates interviewed and selected during the period 2002-2012 includes: Delhi  - interviewed 11738 and selected (1498); Uttar Pradesh – 21984 (998); University of Delhi (DU) – 6436 (743); Maharashtra – 5506 (724); Tamil Nadu – 5148 (721); Rajasthan – 6211 (574); India Institute of Technology-Delhi (IIT-Delhi) – 3398 (519); Karnataka – 2411 (513); Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) - 3317 (496); Andhra Pradesh – 3413 (374); Punjab – 2443 (365); Kerala  - 1203 (196); Madhya Pradesh – 2165 (179); Bihar – 3204(166); Uttarkhand – 1460 (158); Haryana – 1541 (148); West Bengal - 1035 (137); Gujarat – 665 (122); Jharkhand – 1181 (81); Jammu & Kashmir – 312 (57); Odisha -  450 (41); Chandigarh – 751 (37); Chhattisgarh – 170 (37); Himachal Pradesh – 371 (32); Assam - 200 (30); Pondicherry – 138 (29); Meghalaya – 169 (8); Manipur - 49 (8); Sikkim – 43 (7); Nagaland – 9 (2); Goa – 2 (1).

 

UP sends the maximum number of candidates to the interview, but numbers selected on the basis of population proportionately is low.  Delhi, known as the Mecca of UPSC coaching, due to Institutes like JNU, DU, and IIT-Delhi, tops the list of selected persons. Even Kota, Rajasthan, is yet another center.

 

Surprising it is, but irrefutable that Madho Patti with just 75 families in UP, Jaunpur, has given rise to 47 new IAS, IPS, IFS, and IRS officers. The town does not own any high-class coaching institute or additional facilities. What does it imply? It is the inherited legacy and motivation level to emulate their seniors.

 

Therefore, to compare the state wise share of seats, key factors to be considered include: population; motivation/preference of students; quality of educational institutions; quality of coaching institutes; number of candidates appearing in the interview; motivation levels and success rate.  

 

“Quality of inputs” results in “Quantity of outputs”. 

 

Next, the state in the military and the national security and intelligence establishments is certainly skewed in favor of the North. It is also unfair to state that those hailing from the other regions, particularly those from South or East or West do not wish to don uniforms any longer.  

 

Let me clarify at the outset, military power covers army, navy, air force and others to include: HQ IDS, Indian Coast Guard, Border Roads, NCC, MES, Armed Forces Medical Services and others. It is unfair to pass judgments based on half-year data of officers passing out of the Indian Military Academy. Even in the data of officers passing out of the Officers Training Academy, Chennai, that commissions “Short Service Commissioned Officers” should be taken into consideration.

 

Be that as it may, in the case of the Army, on 9 December 2023, 372 cadets passed out as commissioned officers from the Indian Military Academy including 29 from 12 friendly foreign countries. The number of cadets from various states that passed out include: UP – 68; Uttarakhand – 42; Rajasthan – 34; Maharashtra – 28; Bihar – 27; Haryana – 22; Punjab – 20; Himachal Pradesh – 14; Jammu-Kashmir – 10; Kerala – 9; West Bengal – 9; Delhi -8; Tamil Nadu -8; MP – 7; Jharkhand – 5; Odisha -5; Andhra Pradesh -4; Chattisgarh -3; Chandigarh -3; Gujarat -2; Telangana -1; and Arunachal Pradesh -1; Assam -1; Manipur -1; Meghalaya- 1;  Nepalese origin (Indian Army) – 4. 

 

During the 1950s and 1960s, virtually 25-30% Sikhs from Punjab used to be “Commissioned Officers”. But, Punjab is lowly placed nowadays behind Haryana. However, the majority continues from the North only.  

 

Even in the world of media and entertainment, while top editors in the media and filmmakers come from across the country, the ownership of the big media, especially national television, is dominated by business persons from the North and West. The regional media has traditionally been controlled by regional business, but here too the Mumbai and Delhi-based big business are making incursions into the Hindi and non-Hindi media.

 Finally, historically political power was always Delhi-centric, particularly post-Independence 1947 – Nehru-Gandhi dynasty ruled for the best part of 75 years – 46-years (36 plus 10 years with Man Mohan Singh as a figurehead). By exception only for short periods, Shastri, G L Nanda, Morarji Desai, V P Singh, Deva Gowda, I K Gujral and P. Narasimha Rao were the Prime Ministers.  A B Vajpayee from UP was also the Prime Minister.  For the past over 9 1/2-years, Modi (BJP) has been the Prime Minister from the West.  

 

Ipso facto, regional parties in the South exercise political power in their backyards. Coalition politics can offer regional satraps the opportunity to share power in Delhi. An attempt is being made to form the I.N.D.I Alliance in pursuit of political power, but its successful outcomes are difficult to predict as on date.

 

In the business – Economic Power - the South-West of the country from Gujarat through Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, are heavy weights. But, UP is steadily emerging as the number 2 position in GDP. And, Delhi too is in the race.

 

The reason for domination in the business arena is simple. After 1947, South Indians, particularly Tamil people, were considered most conservative. Not anymore.  Due to inherited entrepreneurial genes/skills, the Bania, Marwari, Agarwal and Jain communities hailing from the three States have dominated the private corporate sector. The Forbes list of the top 100 wealthiest Indians in 2023 shows that 71 of them are from the West and North and only 25 from the South. The names of “Top 10” Indian billionaires as per Forbes list includes: 1 Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani, Shiv Nadar, Savitri Jindal & family, Cyrus Poonawalla; Dilip Shanghvi, Kumar Birla, Radhakishan Damani, Lakshmi Mittal, and Kushal Pal Singh. None of the southern 25 wield the kind of clout that the top 10.

 

In sum, lesson of mankind’s history is simple. Change is inevitable; so also power shifts. For example, the British Empire retracted West of Suez in 1967 and from Hong Kong in 1997. Now, its writ is restricted particularly after BREXIT. Even Soviet Union became Russia in 1989. Paul Kennedy’s book “The Rise and Fall of Great Powers” covers the changes from era to era. Viewed holistically, “Power Shifts” are inevitable.  “We the People” in democracy are the ultimate arbitraries at least after every five years. Political power can shift after 2024 elections or post Modi tenure.

 

Undeniably today, the “Gujarati Power Elite” - Modi and Amit Shah;  Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani - dominate India’s political and economic power structure. After Modi, who will wield power is quite uncertain. Whether the “Political Power Shift” alters from West to North or from West to South or East will ultimately rests with the “We the People”. After all, in the past Shastri, G L Nanda, I K Gujral, VP Singh, Deve Gowda, P Narasimha Rao and A B Vajpayee were Prime Ministers from other regions.

 

Also, many political leaders not only from southern states but also West Bengal and Bihar among others have been articulating their concern about the impact of a new delimitation exercise that may increase the parliamentary representation of the Hindi-speaking states and further tilt political power in their favor. Some South Indian politicians like the former finance minister of Tamil Nadu, Palanivel Thiagarajan, have also raised concerns about fiscal transfers from the developed South to laggard states of the North.

 

Also, the “Technology Power”, main spring for economic power in posterity, in the “Technology Age” squarely embedded in the South.